Montag, 23. Februar 2015
Unknown Consequences
diegolego, 20:47h
Recently I found the report "12 Risks That Threaten Human Civilisation" by the Global Challenges Foundation.
I like the Unknown Consequences:
"These represent the unknown unknowns in the family of global catastrophic challenges. They constitute an amalgamation of all the risks that can appear extremely unlikely in isolation, but can combine to represent a not insignificant proportion of the risk exposure. One resolution to the Fermi paradox - the apparent absence of alien life in the galaxy - is that intelligent life destroys itself before beginning to expand into the galaxy. Results that increase or decrease the probability of this explanation modify the generic probability of intelligent life (self-)destruction, which includes uncertain risks. Anthropic reasoning can also bound the total risk of human extinction, and hence estimate the unknown component. Non risk-specific resilience and post-disaster rebuilding efforts will also reduce the damage from uncertain risks, as would appropriate national and international regulatory regimes. Most of these methods would also help with the more conventional, known risks, which badly need more investment." (Executive Summary)
First I had to think of Rumsfeld, then of the Borg, and finally of the untier.
related posts: 2.12.2014, 3.11.2014, 23.9.2013, 6.5.2010 (see also), 23.9.2009
I like the Unknown Consequences:
"These represent the unknown unknowns in the family of global catastrophic challenges. They constitute an amalgamation of all the risks that can appear extremely unlikely in isolation, but can combine to represent a not insignificant proportion of the risk exposure. One resolution to the Fermi paradox - the apparent absence of alien life in the galaxy - is that intelligent life destroys itself before beginning to expand into the galaxy. Results that increase or decrease the probability of this explanation modify the generic probability of intelligent life (self-)destruction, which includes uncertain risks. Anthropic reasoning can also bound the total risk of human extinction, and hence estimate the unknown component. Non risk-specific resilience and post-disaster rebuilding efforts will also reduce the damage from uncertain risks, as would appropriate national and international regulatory regimes. Most of these methods would also help with the more conventional, known risks, which badly need more investment." (Executive Summary)
First I had to think of Rumsfeld, then of the Borg, and finally of the untier.
related posts: 2.12.2014, 3.11.2014, 23.9.2013, 6.5.2010 (see also), 23.9.2009
