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Montag, 23. Februar 2015
Unknown Consequences
diegolego, 20:47h
Recently I found the report "12 Risks That Threaten Human Civilisation" by the Global Challenges Foundation.
I like the Unknown Consequences:
"These represent the unknown unknowns in the family of global catastrophic challenges. They constitute an amalgamation of all the risks that can appear extremely unlikely in isolation, but can combine to represent a not insignificant proportion of the risk exposure. One resolution to the Fermi paradox - the apparent absence of alien life in the galaxy - is that intelligent life destroys itself before beginning to expand into the galaxy. Results that increase or decrease the probability of this explanation modify the generic probability of intelligent life (self-)destruction, which includes uncertain risks. Anthropic reasoning can also bound the total risk of human extinction, and hence estimate the unknown component. Non risk-specific resilience and post-disaster rebuilding efforts will also reduce the damage from uncertain risks, as would appropriate national and international regulatory regimes. Most of these methods would also help with the more conventional, known risks, which badly need more investment." (Executive Summary)
First I had to think of Rumsfeld, then of the Borg, and finally of the untier.
related posts: 2.12.2014, 3.11.2014, 23.9.2013, 6.5.2010 (see also), 23.9.2009
I like the Unknown Consequences:
"These represent the unknown unknowns in the family of global catastrophic challenges. They constitute an amalgamation of all the risks that can appear extremely unlikely in isolation, but can combine to represent a not insignificant proportion of the risk exposure. One resolution to the Fermi paradox - the apparent absence of alien life in the galaxy - is that intelligent life destroys itself before beginning to expand into the galaxy. Results that increase or decrease the probability of this explanation modify the generic probability of intelligent life (self-)destruction, which includes uncertain risks. Anthropic reasoning can also bound the total risk of human extinction, and hence estimate the unknown component. Non risk-specific resilience and post-disaster rebuilding efforts will also reduce the damage from uncertain risks, as would appropriate national and international regulatory regimes. Most of these methods would also help with the more conventional, known risks, which badly need more investment." (Executive Summary)
First I had to think of Rumsfeld, then of the Borg, and finally of the untier.
related posts: 2.12.2014, 3.11.2014, 23.9.2013, 6.5.2010 (see also), 23.9.2009
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The Evolution of Popular Music: USA 1960-2010
diegolego, 11:24h
The Evolution of Popular Music: USA 1960-2010
Matthias Mauch, Robert M. MacCallum, Mark Levy, Armand M. Leroi
In modern societies, cultural change seems ceaseless. The flux of fashion is especially obvious for popular music. While much has been written about the origin and evolution of pop, most claims about its history are anecdotal rather than scientific in nature. To rectify this we investigate the US Billboard Hot 100 between 1960 and 2010. Using Music Information Retrieval (MIR) and text-mining tools we analyse the musical properties of ~17,000 recordings that appeared in the charts and demonstrate quantitative trends in their harmonic and timbral properties. We then use these properties to produce an audio-based classification of musical styles and study the evolution of musical diversity and disparity, testing, and rejecting, several classical theories of cultural change. Finally, we investigate whether pop musical evolution has been gradual or punctuated. We show that, although pop music has evolved continuously, it did so with particular rapidity during three stylistic "revolutions" around 1964, 1983 and 1991. We conclude by discussing how our study points the way to a quantitative science of cultural change.
Link goes to arXiv, but the layout look like PNAS.
Matthias Mauch, Robert M. MacCallum, Mark Levy, Armand M. Leroi
In modern societies, cultural change seems ceaseless. The flux of fashion is especially obvious for popular music. While much has been written about the origin and evolution of pop, most claims about its history are anecdotal rather than scientific in nature. To rectify this we investigate the US Billboard Hot 100 between 1960 and 2010. Using Music Information Retrieval (MIR) and text-mining tools we analyse the musical properties of ~17,000 recordings that appeared in the charts and demonstrate quantitative trends in their harmonic and timbral properties. We then use these properties to produce an audio-based classification of musical styles and study the evolution of musical diversity and disparity, testing, and rejecting, several classical theories of cultural change. Finally, we investigate whether pop musical evolution has been gradual or punctuated. We show that, although pop music has evolved continuously, it did so with particular rapidity during three stylistic "revolutions" around 1964, 1983 and 1991. We conclude by discussing how our study points the way to a quantitative science of cultural change.
Link goes to arXiv, but the layout look like PNAS.
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